Modeling risks in Excel
by Vose Software
Overview
Vose ModelRisk is an advanced Monte Carlo simulation add-in for Microsoft Excel, designed to bring quantitative risk analysis to enterprise risk management (ERM) professionals. With an intuitive Excel interface, rich library of probability distributions, and powerful modeling capabilities, ModelRisk helps organizations assess, quantify, and manage uncertainty in strategic, financial, and operational decisions. Trusted globally across industries, ModelRisk supports better risk-based decision-making, regulatory compliance, and transparency in enterprise risk reporting.
Risk Quantification with Monte Carlo Simulation
ModelRisk enables risk professionals to simulate thousands of potential scenarios using Monte Carlo simulation, providing a complete picture of possible outcomes. This allows organizations to make decisions with confidence by understanding both the likelihood and impact of risk events—essential for informed planning and performance management.
Flexible Integration
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Comprehensive Output
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Sensitivity Analysis and Key Risk Drivers
ModelRisk automatically identifies the variables that drive the most uncertainty in your model. Using visual tools like tornado charts and contribution-to-variance metrics, risk managers can quickly pinpoint the biggest sources of risk—and prioritize mitigation strategies accordingly.
Visual Risk Insights
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Prioritized Decision Support
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Scenario Comparison and Mitigation Planning
ModelRisk allows you to simulate different risk scenarios—such as "Base Case" and "Mitigation Plan"—and compare the results side by side. See how changes affect your risk profile, evaluate trade-offs, and demonstrate the value of risk treatments to stakeholders.
Scenario Management
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Mitigation Effectiveness
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Data-Driven Risk Modeling and Distribution Fitting
ModelRisk includes a powerful fitting tool that helps transform historical data into accurate probability distributions. This ensures your risk models reflect real-world evidence—not guesswork. A must-have for compliance, audit support, and risk-informed governance.
Distribution Fitting Engine
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Evidence-Based Modeling
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Benefits
- ModelRisk brings sophisticated Monte Carlo simulation directly into Excel, enabling ERM professionals to model uncertainty in strategic, financial, and operational risks with ease—no need for specialized programming knowledge.
- By modeling the full range of possible outcomes, ModelRisk helps risk managers quantify and communicate risk exposure, enabling better decision-making based on probabilities, expected values, and risk-adjusted performance indicators.
- ModelRisk offers a vast library of probability distributions, correlation structures, and risk modeling functions—supporting use cases from loss modeling and project risk to regulatory capital estimation and stress testing.
- Built entirely in Excel, ModelRisk models remain transparent and auditable. ERM teams can trace every calculation, validate assumptions, and document the rationale—supporting regulatory compliance and internal governance.
- ModelRisk enables easy scenario testing and sensitivity analysis, helping risk teams understand which variables have the greatest impact on outcomes, prioritize mitigation efforts, and stress-test plans under various assumptions.
- ModelRisk seamlessly integrates with existing ERM processes and reporting workflows. It enhances risk registers, key risk indicator (KRI) tracking, and risk appetite assessments by quantifying risks and aligning outputs with enterprise-level dashboards and reports.
System & Licensing Information
ModelRisk is an add-in for Microsoft Excel. It offers two primary licensing options to suit individual users and organizations: Desktop and Network. Each license includes access to technical support and software updates during the active license term.
Prerequisites
- Operating System: Windows 10 or later (64-bit)
- Microsoft Excel: Version 2016 or later (64-bit)
- Memory: Minimum 8 GB RAM (16 GB recommended for large simulations)
- Disk Space: 500 MB available
- .NET Framework: Version 4.7.2 or later
Licensing Information
Desktop License: A single-user license installed on an individual computer. Ideal for personal or dedicated professional use. The license is linked to the hardware of the device and includes all core functionalities of ModelRisk.
Network License: A shared license managed by a central license server, allowing multiple users within the same organization to access ModelRisk based on the number of available concurrent seats. This is the preferred option for teams and enterprise deployments, enabling flexible access and centralized control.
Update Information
ModelRisk includes a built-in update checker. The software will automatically check for new versions and notify users when an update is available, ensuring you are always informed of the latest improvements and features. Updates can be installed directly from the notification prompt or manually via the ModelRisk interface.
How to obtain this offering?
To purchase this offering, please contact Vose at support@vosesoftware.com.
Resources
Support
Support for ModelRisk is provided via our dedicated ticketing system: https://support.vosesoftware.com. Users can submit support requests at any time, and our team responds during standard business hours (Monday to Friday).
About Archer Exchange
Leverage the Archer Exchange to expand the use of Archer solutions into new business processes and address specific industry, geographic, regulatory, or technical requirements. To learn more or to see what other offerings are available, visit the Archer Exchange page on the Archer Community.
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